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Expand the MC and point estimates. #413

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merged 7 commits into from
Sep 6, 2024
Merged

Expand the MC and point estimates. #413

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dfcc27f
Expand the MC and point estimates.
sampottinger Sep 6, 2024
877f84f
Bump version.
sampottinger Sep 6, 2024
b943377
Fix json template for #413.
sampottinger Sep 6, 2024
b2f24b4
Fix start date on pre_consumption.
sampottinger Sep 6, 2024
7e881b0
Keep centered on zero.
sampottinger Sep 6, 2024
79cdd00
Fix mistake in consumption start date for #413.
sampottinger Sep 6, 2024
b7dbc2c
Fix date in change log.
sampottinger Sep 6, 2024
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion js/version.txt
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1 +1 @@
20240906
20240907
28 changes: 22 additions & 6 deletions pt/index.json_template
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Expand Up @@ -1590,15 +1590,31 @@
"name": "manual",
"label": "Manual Changes",
"levers": [
{
"name": "Amortized model offset",
"description": "How much of amortized error should be offset in model point estimations.",
"min": 0,
"max": 100,
"default": 100,
"step": 1,
"units": "%",
"forcePlus": true,
"variable": "amortizedModelOffset",
"template": "noop.pt",
"released": true,
"priority": -200,
"attrs": {},
"url": "https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/ml.pdf"
},
{% for region in regions %}
{% for sector in sectors %}
{
"name": "{{ region['label'] }} Consumption Offset for {{ sector['label'] }}",
"description": "How many metric tons to offset consumption for {{ sector['label'] }} like to capture BAU model uncertainty.",
"min": -100,
"max": 100,
"default": 0,
"step": 1,
"default": {{ region['constants']['consumptionErrorMean'] }},
"step": 0.01,
"units": "Mt",
"forcePlus": true,
"variable": "{{ region['key'] }}PreConsumption{{ sector['key'] }}MT",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1635,8 +1651,8 @@
"description": "Percentage offset for {{ fate['label'] }} like to capture BAU model uncertainty.",
"min": -100,
"max": 100,
"default": 0,
"step": 1,
"default": {{ region['constants']['wasteErrorMean'] }},
"step": 0.1,
"units": "%",
"forcePlus": true,
"variable": "{{ region['key'] }}PreDelta{{ fate['key'] }}Percent",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1672,7 +1688,7 @@
"description": "Offset in goods trade as percent of consumption like to capture model uncertainty.",
"min": -100,
"max": 100,
"default": 0,
"default": {{ region['constants']['tradeErrorMean'] }},
"step": 1,
"units": "%",
"forcePlus": true,
Expand All @@ -1692,7 +1708,7 @@
"description": "Offset in waste trade as percent of consumption like to capture model uncertainty.",
"min": -100,
"max": 100,
"default": 0,
"default": {{ region['constants']['wasteTradeMean'] }},
"step": 1,
"units": "%",
"forcePlus": true,
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89 changes: 80 additions & 9 deletions pt/pre_consumption.pt
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@@ -1,13 +1,84 @@
# Determine deltas
# Determine how much change is allowed
var allowedMultiplier = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionMultiplier / 100;
var agricultureDelta = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionAgricultureMT * allowedMultiplier;
var constructionDelta = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionConstructionMT * allowedMultiplier;
var electronicDelta = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionElectronicMT * allowedMultiplier;
var hlsDelta = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionHouseholdLeisureSportsMT * allowedMultiplier;
var packagingDelta = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionPackagingMT * allowedMultiplier;
var transportationDelta = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionTransportationMT * allowedMultiplier;
var textileDelta = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionTextileMT * allowedMultiplier;
var otherDelta = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionOtherMT * allowedMultiplier;
var amortizedMultiplier = in.amortizedModelOffset / 100;
var pointDuration = 2050 - 2023; # Start applying offset in 2023.

# Determine deltas from Monte Carlo
var agricultureDeltaMc = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionAgricultureMT * allowedMultiplier;
var constructionDeltaMc = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionConstructionMT * allowedMultiplier;
var electronicDeltaMc = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionElectronicMT * allowedMultiplier;
var hlsDeltaMc = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionHouseholdLeisureSportsMT * allowedMultiplier;
var packagingDeltaMc = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionPackagingMT * allowedMultiplier;
var transportationDeltaMc = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionTransportationMT * allowedMultiplier;
var textileDeltaMc = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionTextileMT * allowedMultiplier;
var otherDeltaMc = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionOtherMT * allowedMultiplier;

# Determine deltas from point estimate offsets (non-Monte Carlo)
var agricultureDeltaPoint = 0;
var agricultureDeltaPointMax = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionAgricultureMT;
agricultureDeltaPointMax = agricultureDeltaPointMax * allowedMultiplier;
agricultureDeltaPointMax = agricultureDeltaPointMax * amortizedMultiplier;
agricultureDeltaPointMax = agricultureDeltaPointMax * pointDuration;
change agricultureDeltaPoint by agricultureDeltaPointMax over 2023 to 2050;

var constructionDeltaPoint = 0;
var constructionDeltaPointMax = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionConstructionMT;
constructionDeltaPointMax = constructionDeltaPointMax * allowedMultiplier;
constructionDeltaPointMax = constructionDeltaPointMax * amortizedMultiplier;
constructionDeltaPointMax = constructionDeltaPointMax * pointDuration;
change constructionDeltaPoint by constructionDeltaPointMax over 2023 to 2050;

var electronicDeltaPoint = 0;
var electronicDeltaPointMax = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionElectronicMT;
electronicDeltaPointMax = electronicDeltaPointMax * allowedMultiplier;
electronicDeltaPointMax = electronicDeltaPointMax * amortizedMultiplier;
electronicDeltaPointMax = electronicDeltaPointMax * pointDuration;
change electronicDeltaPoint by electronicDeltaPointMax over 2023 to 2050;

var hlsDeltaPoint = 0;
var hlsDeltaPointMax = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionHouseholdLeisureSportsMT;
hlsDeltaPointMax = hlsDeltaPointMax * allowedMultiplier;
hlsDeltaPointMax = hlsDeltaPointMax * amortizedMultiplier;
hlsDeltaPointMax = hlsDeltaPointMax * pointDuration;
change hlsDeltaPoint by hlsDeltaPointMax over 2023 to 2050;

var packagingDeltaPoint = 0;
var packagingDeltaPointMax = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionPackagingMT;
packagingDeltaPointMax = packagingDeltaPointMax * allowedMultiplier;
packagingDeltaPointMax = packagingDeltaPointMax * amortizedMultiplier;
packagingDeltaPointMax = packagingDeltaPointMax * pointDuration;
change packagingDeltaPoint by packagingDeltaPointMax over 2023 to 2050;

var transportationDeltaPoint = 0;
var transportationDeltaPointMax = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionTransportationMT;
transportationDeltaPointMax = transportationDeltaPointMax * allowedMultiplier;
transportationDeltaPointMax = transportationDeltaPointMax * amortizedMultiplier;
transportationDeltaPointMax = transportationDeltaPointMax * pointDuration;
change transportationDeltaPoint by transportationDeltaPointMax over 2023 to 2050;

var textileDeltaPoint = 0;
var textileDeltaPointMax = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionTextileMT;
textileDeltaPointMax = textileDeltaPointMax * allowedMultiplier;
textileDeltaPointMax = textileDeltaPointMax * amortizedMultiplier;
textileDeltaPointMax = textileDeltaPointMax * pointDuration;
change textileDeltaPoint by textileDeltaPointMax over 2023 to 2050;

var otherDeltaPoint = 0;
var otherDeltaPointMax = in.{{ region }}PreConsumptionOtherMT;
otherDeltaPointMax = otherDeltaPointMax * allowedMultiplier;
otherDeltaPointMax = otherDeltaPointMax * amortizedMultiplier;
otherDeltaPointMax = otherDeltaPointMax * pointDuration;
change otherDeltaPoint by otherDeltaPointMax over 2023 to 2050;

# Determine overall deltas
var agricultureDelta = agricultureDeltaMc + agricultureDeltaPoint;
var constructionDelta = constructionDeltaMc + constructionDeltaPoint;
var electronicDelta = electronicDeltaMc + electronicDeltaPoint;
var hlsDelta = hlsDeltaMc + hlsDeltaPoint;
var packagingDelta = packagingDeltaMc + packagingDeltaPoint;
var transportationDelta = transportationDeltaMc + transportationDeltaPoint;
var textileDelta = textileDeltaMc + textileDeltaPoint;
var otherDelta = otherDeltaMc + otherDeltaPoint;

# Apply limits
limit agricultureDelta to [-1 * out.{{ region }}.consumptionAgricultureMT,];
Expand Down
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